No its not 2000 election redux, it could well be the decision of the Democratic Party. You see every election cycle the DNC lays out primary schedule. This year many states looked to move their primary up. Florida chose to move its primary all the way up to January. This got the party mad! Hopping mad!

So as penalty the DNC might well let Florida hold the primary but make it non-binding. Instead, party leaders may well pick who Florida’s 200 delegates goto. Why? I have no idea why in the world someone would do it that way but its what they are considering.

Here in New York you must be enrolled in a party to vote in the primaries so I never get the chance to be involved in the process. I will say that even my geeky butt probably wouldn’t turn out to vote if I knew it had no impact.

According to the New York Times candidate Rudy Giuliani is going to begin explicitly giving his view on abortion rights in the coming weeks/months which is that he is pro-choice. After months of giving conflicting answers (finally culminating in what many see as a poor performance during the first Republican debate) Giuliani seems ready to hedge his bets and stand by his beliefs.

I said yesterday in the blog that I didn’t understand why Giuliani or Romney thought they could position themselves as anti-abortion candidates with such massive records leaning the other way. Now I have to wonder if it is too late for Giuliani who started out as the hero of 9/11 and has now become the candidate of questionable abortion credentials.

Giuliani’s overall campaign logic is somewhat sound. Hammer home that we are in a war, hammer home that he is tuff on crime & defense, let voters decide if differences on social issues outweigh his message on how to lead and run the country & its defense. But instead, by trying to hide his social beliefs and mask them behind language he didn’t do that. He allowed a huge distraction to enter voters minds.

I have to believe that for average conservative American voters abortion is a very big issue. More than that though I have to believe they want a candidate who won’t pander to them on it. If you believe in ending abortion you will have less respect for someone who pretends they will give you what they want then someone who just comes right out and tells you they don’t agree.

Frankly a voter who is making most of their presidential decision on the topic of abortion and doesn’t want nuance isn’t going to vote for Giuliani and probably not Romney either. Now those who could have look at him and wonder if he has a credibility problem.

I am glad to hear like Giuliani might be ready to come clean, it is still early. I just don’t understand why they didn’t start out this way.

Moderate House Republicans warned the president yesterday afternoon that his policy on Iraq is hurting the GOP according to a report by MSNBC. According to the article they also warned the president he could not count on their support much longer.

I think during the 2006 elections most people assumed the war would look the same as it did through the 2008 elections but signs are showing that the Republican Party is very concerned about the backlash for the next election. IN addition reports have been coming out that some former heavy hitters for the Bush admin & the party are now moving toward the Democratic position and some to the Democratic candidates as well.

Yesterday retired Generals began a campaign to sway the administration from its policy and in addition the Vice President made a surprise trip to Iraq yesterday and warned the government their time might be running out. 2008 will undoubtedly be about security & about Iraq but unlike 2004 the pendulum of support seems like it is swinging in favor of the Democrats.

Howard Fineman thinks ” Schwarzenegger, Bloomberg and Gore have formed a mutual admiration society that has huge potential implications for 2008″:

If I were a GOP strategist – or a Democratic one – I would be worried by Arnold’s body language. He and other major independent actors on the political scene – New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Vice President Al Gore, chief among them – comprise a Third Force that could upset two-party politics as we know it in the 2008 presidential race.

Indeed, although there is no formal alliance, Schwarzenegger, Bloomberg and Gore have formed a mutual admiration society that has huge potential implications for 2008. They have come to share similar visions on the urgency of the global warming and health care crises, and a similar impatience with politics as usual.

Also HUGE props to anyone who can tell me where the phrase in the titles quotes comes from!

Hillary’s worst habit is chocolate, Rudys last music purchase was Verdi’s “MacBeth”, Obama says he is a pretty good poker player & McCain’s worst habit is coffee. The Associated Press has asked the candidates a series of questions you didn’t even know you wanted the answers too and their shocking, mind bending responses probably won’t interest you too much either… but they are there anyway.

Personally I think they should have gone Inside the Actors Studio style and asked “What’s your favorite curse word? What sound or noise do you love? As president you get one free murder, how will you use it?” (The only correct answer to that last one being Osama bin Laden)

From the Associated Press:

Three retired generals challenged a dozen members of Congress in a new ad campaign Wednesday, saying the politicians can’t expect to win re-election if they support President Bush’s policies in Iraq.

I think the Democrats need to continue courting middle of the road independents and Republicans and the military as they did in ‘06 if they want to see a takeover in ‘08. This helps. It helps a lot.

I am VERY SLOWLY getting the polling section of the site together but I thought I would point to a new WNBC/Marist poll. It shows not only does Sen. Clinton lead the other Democratic candidates with double digits BUT she also for the first time is polling ahead of potential Republican rivals. It is a slight lead but it is a lead at that.

This poll follows a recent Gallup poll (the first revealed after the debates) which also had Sen. Clinton leading double digits over Sen. Barack Obama & others.

They both donated to Planned Parenthood.

I seriously don’t know how either Romney or Giuliani thought they would ever get away with trying to be “pro-life” candidates. Every week some new revelation comes out.

We are definetly in “gaffee” mode with the candidates and Obama just gave his latest. Speaking to about 500 people yesterday he said the death toll from the Kansas tornadoes was 10,000 when in fact it was twelve. Meanwhile Alex Beam calls Obama the BradleyDeanBabbittTsongas candidate in his latest column and the latest Marist polling shows Sen. Clinton with a double digit lead over Obama.

Of course the comparisons have already begun between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Ségolène Royal who just ran for and lost the French presidential election. The comparison has been dismissed by the Clinton camp but it does hit an interesting point.

Political junkies, historians & pundits have a habit of comparing things. We love doing it! I mean LOVE IT! We like to find similarities, differences, fun quirky bits of information, numbers, whatever we can to take someone like President George W. Bush and see if he is more like President Harry Truman or President Herbert Hoover. Why? Because it is good geeky fun.

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