Hillary & The Connecticut Cry


February 4th, 2008

As she did before New Hampshire Senator Hillary Clinton has once again been caught crying during an emotional introduction at the Yale Child Center in Connecticut.

Penn Rhodeen, who was introducing Clinton, began to choke up, leading Clinton’s eyes to fill with tears, which she wiped out of her left eye. At the time, Rhodeen was saying how proud he was that the sheepskin-coat, bell-bottom-wearing young woman he met in 1972 was now running for president.

“Well, I said I would not tear up; already we’re not exactly on the path,” Clinton said with emotion after the introduction.

In addition Clinton also held a roundtable, similar to the one she held in NH before the vote, where she repeatedly lost her voice. I saw Clinton on C-SPAN last night struggling to keep her voice going as well.

News of Clinton’s crying is quickly spreading in the media and online and no doubt will be dissected every which way. Will there be implications? I have no idea but I am sure there will be a lot more discussion.

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Last Nights Biggest Loser? - The Democratic Party


January 16th, 2008

I was reading CNN’s compilation of thoughts from Michigan voters and also heard from a friend in the state this morning. I don’t think it is a surprise that the sentiment coming from Democrats there is not a pleasant one because in short, their voices were not heard. That isn’t to say they aren’t happy with Senator Clinton, all things being equal she might have won anyway, but because the state’s delegates will be denied from the convention and because their race was uncontested.

I have made no secret on this blog that I am not in favor of keeping Iowa and New Hampshire’s hold over either parties nomination process. This was a concoction that has only developed since the 1970’s and in short it is one that won’t last. When we look at the mainstream media’s desire to call the entire Democratic nomination after just the small state of Iowa’s caucus, you see the sheer stupidity of this system and how it can be mishandled.

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Jon Stewart Takes on Chris Matthews


January 11th, 2008

I have noted a few times on this blog how MSNBC’s Chris Matthews has spent the last few months publically fawning over Barack Obama. The Daily Show seems to have noticed the same thing. You can see the individual take on Matthews here but if you have a minute and want to see the entire media mocked by Stewart check out the shows coverage of media coverage from New Hampshire which also includes the Matthews moment:

Meanwhile check out this clip of Matthews talking about how he teared up watching an Obama speech.

You can also see this clip of Matthews declaring an Obama win in Iowa will be equivalent to the fall of the Berlin wall and elections in South Africa and the “biggest news story to come out of America since Reagan beating Carter.”

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What Went Wrong With New Hampshire Polling?


January 9th, 2008

Gary Langer director of polling at ABC has some interesting thoughts and questions about the polling fiasco in New Hampshire:

But we need to know it through careful, empirically based analysis. There will be a lot of claims about what happened - about respondents who reputedly lied, about alleged difficulties polling in biracial contests. That may be so. It also may be a smokescreen - a convenient foil for pollsters who’d rather fault their respondents than own up to other possibilities - such as their own failings in sampling and likely voter modeling.

John Zogby offers up six points to look at with the New Hampshire numbers:

5. Going into the New Hampshire primary, we certainly did see Clinton holding on to a significant lead among women and older voters. But we were focusing on Obama’s massive lead among younger and independent voters. We seem to have missed the huge turnout of older women that apparently put Clinton over the top.

Zogby notes that Clinton’s numbers did go up in his polling for the last 24 hours after her debate performance but they were trending polls and averaged in the massive leads they saw after Obama’s win in Iowa.

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CIRCLE Report: Youth Turnout in New Hampshire


January 9th, 2008

From CIRCLE, the youth vote increased in the New Hampshire primary to 43% of eligible voters 30 and under, up from 18% in 2004 and 28% in 2000 based on exit polls conducted in the state. That numbers equates to 84,232 young people or 16% of the overall vote.

Specifically young people represented 18% of the total Democratic vote and 14% of the overall Republican vote.

For Democrats young people between the ages of 18-24 went 60% for Senator Obama compared to 22% for Senator Clinton and 9% for former Senator Edwards. Meanwhile young people between the ages of 24-30 spread 37% for Clinton, 35% for Obama and 18% for Edwards.

Check out the CIRCLE page for more information.

For the Republicans young people between the ages of 18-24 went 27% for John McCain and then spread 19% for Ron Paul, 17% for Mitt Romney and 15% for Mike Huckabee. Meanwhile young people between the ages of 24-30 went 37% for John McCain, 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul and 15% for Mike Huckabee.

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Unprecedented


January 9th, 2008

From MSNBC

“In the modern primary era, this is the first four-way split in Iowa and New Hampshire in the Republican and Democratic races. In other words, there is no precedent for what’s taken place in this election — not in the generation since Iowa and New Hampshire have mattered together. Since 1976, when there have been winners in all four states, there has never been four different candidates who have won these two states.”

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On Getting Things Wrong in New Hampshire


January 9th, 2008

It is almost impossible to convey just how wrong everyone, including me, got it wrong in New Hampshire. Just dead wrong! Goes to show what any of us know.

When it comes to Senator Clinton I have to say this. I have never seen anyone take such a massive beating in the press, on the blogs, by her opponents, by the people themselves showing up to boo and protest, than she took after Iowa. When people asked me what the signifigance was going to be from Iowa I did not say it was delegates, I did not say it was a sense of the electorate, I did not say it was anything substantial when it comes to voting. I said it would be the media that would go on to crown the winner the victor and pummel the opposition. Boy was that an understatement.

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Results - New Hampshire


January 8th, 2008

Dems - 81% Reporting
39% Clinton, 37% (WINNER) Obama, 17% Edwards, 5% Richardson

Reps - 72% Reporting
37% McCain (WINNER), 32% Romney, 11% Huckabee, 9% Giuliani, 8% Paul

8:12PM EST: Update: CNN Projects John McCain wins the Republican New Hampshire Primary

8:01 PM EST: Update: CNN Projects John Edwards will be in 3rd based on real votes coming in and exit polls. Obama & Clinton fighting for first place.

Best Source, Politico not only has the results automatically updated but a BEAUTIFUL map with county breakdowns.

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John McCain Wins New Hampshire Primary


January 8th, 2008

“I’m going to New Hampshire and I am going to tell them the truth!”

CNN is now projecting John McCain is the winner of the New Hampshire Primary.
FOX News also projects John McCain the winner.
NBS also projects.

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Early Exit Poll Data for New Hampshire (Open Thread)


January 8th, 2008

From Marc Ambinder on the New Hampshire primary:

EXIT POLLS: GOP: 3 in 10 GOP voters are independents (CORRECTED FIGURE)…many late deciders… McCain more electable than Romney…33% say economy is biggest issue followed by Iraq (22%) …. Democrats: 46% made up minds without last week.. 4 in 10 are independents…. HRC’s favorability: 73%; Obama’s: 84%; … 36% say economy is top issue….

From CNN Exit Polls

Last Minute Decisions
Eighteen percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Democrats said they settled on a candidate on Election Day.

New Hampshire Democratic primary voters:

1. The economy
2. The war in Iraq
3. Health care

New Hampshire Republican primary voters:

1. The economy
2. The war in Iraq
3. Terrorism
4. Illegal immigration

New Hampshire Republican primary voters

Enthusiastic – 10 percent

Satisfied, but not enthusiastic – 40 percent

Dissatisfied, but not angry – 33 percent

Angry – 16 percent

New Hampshire Republican primary voters

Generally continue George W. Bush’s policies – 18 percent

Change to more conservative policies – 51 percent

Change to less conservative policies – 24 percent

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