A Sudden Surge for Obama in PA


April 2nd, 2008

Politico reports on a series of new polls showing a sudden surge for Senator Obama in Pennsylvania. Yesterday I reported the latest Ramsussen showing a once mighty 10 point lead for Clinton diminishing to five. Today a new poll by Public Policy Polling shows Obama leading Clinton for the first time 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama was down 26% in polling by the same institute just two and a half weeks ago.

bama’s gains are largely due to a narrowing of the gap with white voters—29-percentage points according to PPP—but he continues to trail Clinton 49 to 38 percent among whites. In mid-March, according to PPP, Clinton led 63 percent to 23 percent among whites. That mid-March poll occurred prior to Obama’s race speech, at the height of the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

The PPP poll of 1224 likely Democratic primary voters between March 31 and April 1, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent, found that Obama has improved by double digits with both white women and white men. Today, PPP has Clinton leading 56 percent to 31 percent with white women. Obama leads 44 percent to 43 percent with white men.

Obama also improved with black voters, long his base. He now captures the support of three in four African Americans in the state.

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