Update:

: Also see this article from the financial times about Democratic jitters.

I love it when my predictions and commentary are accurate! Sorry to gloat, but I have to.

OK, so the other day I was on my high horse because my prediction that you would start seeing Democrats openly (and some behind the scenes) questioning the Obama campaigns handling of itself and its opponents. In that post I mentioned that Representatives were always the first to turn on a candidate because they were the most likely to lose their jobs if turnout did not favor their nominee. Well, guess what, Gallup is now reporting that after a year of double digit leads in generic polling about Congress, things are evening out.

Lets recap what has happened:

1) The Democratic Congress is even worse than the Republicans. Seriously, after coming in on a wave of “change” and the promise to end the War, get Representatives working a full week, pass meaningful ethics reform and stop the personal attacks, well, they are doing a terrible job. They have passed little to no meaningful legislation and Washington seems even worse now than it was a year ago.

2) The Iraq War has stabilized. Democrats thought the shift in attention to Afghanistan would actually help them because it would somehow signal the Bush administration was incompetent and ignoring the nation because of Iraq. While some may have this perception it is also a reminder that Islamic Fundamentalist terrorism is real, so are the dangers in fighting it. In short, leadership with military experience is a plus for Republicans.

3) There is real excitement with conservatives. No longer worried about building up the base, McCain can now focus on independents thanks to the energy of Sarah Palin. Obama and the media have no idea how to handle her, it only plays more to the base.

So with renewed excitement, a do-nothing Democratic Congress and a real sense of apathy, Republicans have a fighting chance at keeping the White House. This could spell doom for Democrats who thought they would see a massive shift in Congress. If Republican turnout is high, than that means many local races that were not competitive two months ago now are.

Watch the next few weeks for any major shift in issues. Read, flag burning, Elian Gonzalez, gay marriage, anything of that kind. They spring up constantly in the final weeks of a campaign and they can be deadly. At this point we could see either side utterly destroyed by a gaffe or awarded for being on the right side of an issue that seems trivial to elites but resonates to voters. Something will come, we just don’t know what it is yet.