It is becoming more evident that in this election cycle immigration is going to play a big role. I cannot help but come back to Lyndon Johnson. Not because of any role Johnson played in the issue but because of something he said when passing the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Supposedly Johnson said of the Democratic Party “We have lost the South for a generation” and in reality, they had. After that vote many Southern Democrats became Republicans and have been so ever since.

George W. Bush seems to see the immigration issue in the same way. As Governor of a border state he saw the growing wave of illegal immigration (and legal immigration as well) from Mexico & Latin America. He seems to genuinely understand that if Republicans cave into the base of the party they may well hand the largest minority voting block to the Democrats to add to their portfolio. It could be devastating for the Republicans. Meanwhile the left understands what they can gain and so they are willing to put American fears of lost jobs and culture aside, seeing a future of Latin influence coming their way.

It is a tricky issue, one that might well eliminate John McCain from the running, could well turn the last remaining thread of the Republican base against the administration and could turn the Republican party inside out. The Senate looks ready to revive the bill, Sen. Trent Lott commented that talk radio and the growing passion on this issue in the Republican party is misplaced and the president has scolded his party for their opposition.

They don’t seem to recognize the growing passion on this issue with regular Americans especially in places like Texas, Iowa and even in rural New York.

The president has a strong conviction, perhaps as strong as his convictions with Iraq and he seems ready to throw away any ounce of support he has left to get this bill through. Republicans in Congress, perhaps guided by their own conviction and perhaps fearing the loss of their jobs in the coming elections, are working hard to help him. The more they push, the more the party moves away.

It all adds up to what should be a very interesting election. The Republican base is becoming mad as hell. As the Democratic base slowly works to integrate its anti-war half with its cautious “lets be realistic” half the Republicans seem ready to ignite. If you read conservative blogs it isn’t just immigration either. It is Harriet Miers, No Child Left Behind, Katrina, corruption & yes, even Iraq. From those who now think we should never have gone, to those who think we should have gone but did a poor job there is one overriding belief, Iraq is going nowhere fast and it is driving the base away from those in power and will in time drive them from the pro-Bush, pro-Iraq War candidates.

The Republican candidates want to get elected. They so far think they will do it with talk of tax cuts, terrorism & abortion alone. Yet they are also having to go further toward the base on issues like immigration while moving further away from those in power, those who consider themselves moderates and of course the Latino population that is gaining a strong voice in American politics.

Where will it all end? We have 500+ days to see. It should be an interesting show and I will keep writing about the topic as the issue progresses.